A Plan for Selling

11.11.2024 — Strategy — 3 min read

What's up gang.

My crypto story started in earnest in 2017. I remember being at my local jiu-jitsu club, and everyone was talking about crypto. Realising this was not normal, yours truly, considering himself a learned man and a cynic, rushed to sell his small bitcoin holdings (at around 11k).

Obviously the blow-off top then followed, and then the crash in about February. Again congratulating myself on being smarter than everyone else, I fired the majority of my dry powder in stages at around 11k. Before it dumped and settled around 6k (with a short trip to 3k).

My second cycle (2021) I Was a true diehard believer. I sold essentially nothing, just farming rewards, and held my bags the whole way down.

Boo hoo crybaby, who cares right?

As a third cycle old-hand, I've now realised that fortune favours the prepared mind. At no point in either of the previous 2 cycles did I really think about how I want to be positioned, or even the range of outcomes that could happen over the next 3-6 months.

For me, personally at least, this time is different. The major unknown (the election i.e. whether or not we get our first explicitly pro-crypto president) has resolved itself with a favourable result for crypto proponents. The markets have surged off the back of this news, with BTC breaking decisively through ATHs.

I've essentially been max-long (no significant stablecoin holdings and light leverage applied through AAVE) since February this year when the ETFs proved to be a meaningful development.

Now, with my positions sitting on a healthy profit, I've started to ask myself under what conditions I'll be selling. This is what I've come up with:

Sell 25% of my long positions when the FIRST of any of these things happens.

Time	Price	Culture
End Jan 25	6k ETH, 125k BTC	Spate of sovereign wealth funds buy, legal tender in Argentina.
Tax year 25	8k ETH, 200k BTC	100 fear/greed index. U.S 'strategic reserve' headlines/happens. >$10bn ETF flows in < 1 month.
June 25	10k ETH, 250k BTC	>1 regular person asks me about crypto in a week. My brother buys back in.
September 25	15k ETH, 400k BTC	100 on google trends. Full taxi-driver style public mania.

Obviously like any plan this is a rough guide, an outline that I can refer to in the moment to actually make my decision. Nothing is set in stone.

But I do think I'll stick pretty closely to something like this. Whether or not the price flies, I don't think I want to have substantial long positions for more than 6-9 months after this big catalyst. Whether or not it takes 9 months or 3, I don't think I want massive holdings if ETH breaks 10k. And certainly it google search volume for 'buy BTC' breaks it's high from 2017, I'll be heading for the exits.

GL out there.